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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Friday, 30 January 15
CAN BULKER CONVERSIONS SPOIL THE TANKER MARKET'S PARTY? - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Oversupply of tonnage has always been in the back of the head of ship owners when it comes to taking advantage of favorable market conditions. As s ...
Thursday, 29 January 15
CHINA ENERGY DEMAND MUST BE REVIEWED DUE TO FUNDAMENTAL ECONOMIC CHANGES - WOOD MACKENZIE
New patterns emerging as energy demand growth decoupled significantly from GDP growth for the first time in 2014
Wood Mackenzie says 2014 was ...
Thursday, 29 January 15
CAPE MARKET IS STILL STRUGGLING WITH LOW DEMAND AND LOW COMMODITY PRICES
Handy
Supramax rates are heading south with slipping rates all across the block. USG activity is slow with mid-week levels in the mid 8.000s, Fea ...
Wednesday, 28 January 15
MARKET INSIGHT - STELIOS KOLLINTZAS
With most traders having returned to action from year end festivities, we have already seen signs of activity in the specialized product markets. L ...
Wednesday, 28 January 15
CAPES CONTINUED THEIR UPWARD MOVEMENT LAST WEEK - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market displayed a mirror performance of that of the week prior, with the Capesize market correcting further upwards and ...
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- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
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