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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Sunday, 25 January 15
PANAMAX FREIGHT RATES STILL FALLING
COALspot.com: The BDI was slightly down this week to 720 points. The BDI lost 2.83 pct week on week.
The cape index continued its upward trend ...
Friday, 23 January 15
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION FOR WEEK ENDING JAN. 17 UP 2.5%
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 19.4 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
Thursday, 22 January 15
PANAMAX: A SOFTER TONE AND OVERALL A SLUGGISH MARKET - FEARNLEYS
Handy
The handy and supra market has experienced yet another week with slow activity and softening rates in both hemispheres, broker Fearnleys AS ...
Thursday, 22 January 15
BUMI RESOURCES POSTS NET INCOME OF $13.3 MILLION 9M-2014
COALspot.com: Bumi Resources, Indonesia’s largest coal miner, reported today that, the company has recorded a net income of $13.3 million for ...
Wednesday, 21 January 15
PANAMAX MARKET MOVED SIDEWAYS OVERALL LAST WEEK - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The positive sentiment in which the week prior ended carried on through-out last week as well, the end of which marked the first posi ...
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- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
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