We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Wednesday, 04 February 15
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
It has been just about over 2 months since, in a move that surprised many and caused widespread apprehension, OPEC decided to maintain its producti ...
Tuesday, 03 February 15
Q1'15 FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP CLOSED $ 3.29 HIGHER COMPARED TO Q4'15 DELIVERY PRICE
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1' 2015 rose week over week and month on month.
The Q1 swap up US$ 0.68 (+1.41%) month o ...
Tuesday, 03 February 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FOR Q4 DELIVERY CLOSED 5.86% LOWER THAN Q1 PRICE
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery rose US$ 0.26 per MT (+0.51%) week over week and declined US$ 0.02 (-0.04%) ...
Monday, 02 February 15
API 4 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP ROSE WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q1' 2015 declined month over month and day on day.
The Q1 swap has decli ...
Monday, 02 February 15
INDONESIA'S ADARO ENERGY PRODUCED 56.21 MILLION TONNES OF COAL IN 2014; UP 8% Y-O-Y
COALspot.com: PT. Adaro Energy, Indonesia’s largest coal producer, has increased coal production by 8% to 56.21 million tonnes (Mt) from both ...
|
|
|
Showing 3216 to 3220 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Australian Coal Association
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
|
| |
| |
|
