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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Monday, 02 February 15
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP PICKS UP W-O-W
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 0.81 (-1.36%) per MT month over month and gained US$ 0.18&nb ...
Monday, 02 February 15
SOUTH KOREA'S KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR 280K MT OF SUB-BITUMINOUS COAL
COALspot.com: South Korean state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued an new tender to buy total 280,000 MT of Sub-bituminous coal coa ...
Sunday, 01 February 15
INDONESIA-TO-INDIA COAL FREIGHT RATES REMAIN WEAK NEXT WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI continued its fall reached lowest levels since 1986 this week.
The BDI declined 15.55 pct to 608 points on Friday 30, Ja ...
Friday, 30 January 15
CONTANGO AND TANKERS - SKULD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Like an invitation to a dance, the word contango may have some people flustered, but for tanker owners this market phenome ...
Friday, 30 January 15
U.S. YEAR-TO-DATE COAL PRODUCTION REACHED 65.7 MMST
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 19.9 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
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- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
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