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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Wednesday, 11 March 15
DRY BULK MARKET CLOSED OFF ON THE GREEN FOR A SECOND WEEK IN A ROW - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market closed off on the green for a second week in a row, while the performance of Capesizes hindered a more substantia ...
Wednesday, 11 March 15
MARKET INSIGHT : NEWBUILDINGS - PANOS TSILINGIRIS
From a cost-based, buy-low perspective, there is currently a buying opportunity in the second-hand dry bulk market. I am an anti-cyclical (buy-low) ...
Wednesday, 11 March 15
DRY BULK MARKET: ALL IS NOT LOST FOR A RECOVERY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The low cost of commodities across the board could trigger an increase of trade among many countries, which in turn could lead to a recovery of the ...
Wednesday, 11 March 15
U.S. ELECTRIC GENERATING COMPANIES TO ADD MORE THAN 20 GW OF GENERATING CAPACITY IN 2015; 16 GW OF GENERATING CAPACITY IS EXPECTED TO RETIRE IN 2015
COALspot.com: In 2015, electric generating companies in U.S. expect to add more than 20 gigawatts (GW) of utility-scale generating capacity to the ...
Tuesday, 10 March 15
OIL PRICE FORECASTING - IGNORE THE EXPERTS: COLIN MARSHALL
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Experts put themselves on a pedestal, making claims to have special forecasting abilities for oil price trends. They, too ...
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Showing 3146 to 3150 news of total 6871 |
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- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The University of Queensland
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
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