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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Saturday, 04 April 15
BORYEONG POWER OF KOMIPO TO BUY TOTALED 695K MT OF HIGH AND LCV COAL
COALspot.com - Korea Midland Power Co. Ltd. (KOMIPO) is inviting bids from coal producers, marketing companies, or traders to supply of 500000 Metr ...
Friday, 03 April 15
U.S WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION STAYS FLAT
COALspot.com – United States the second largest coal producer in the world has produced approximately totaled an estimated 18.3 million short ...
Friday, 03 April 15
TOBA BARA'S PANDU SJAHRIR ELECTED AS NEW CHAIRMAN OF THE INDONESIAN COAL MINING ASSOCIATION
COALspot.com: Pandu Sjahrir, the Vice President Director & CFO of the Jakarta-listed PT Toba Bara Sejahtra — a subsidiary of PT Toba Seja ...
Thursday, 02 April 15
GOVERNMENT MUST WORK WITH MINING, NOT AGAINST IT - PANDU SJAHRIR
The Coal Face: The coal price has hit its lowest point in recent memory
My father used to say to me that his children are his biggest inv ...
Thursday, 02 April 15
NEWBUILDING ORDERS FOR DRY BULK CARRIERS "DRY" UP
Newbuilding ordering activity remained subdued over the course of the past week, as ship owners are wary of adding further tonnage to an already pr ...
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- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PTC India Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Planning Commission, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The University of Queensland
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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