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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Monday, 30 March 15
Q3' 15 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP: DECLINED 8.7% M-M; 12.77% Y-TO-D
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 5.00 (-8.70%) per MT month over month and US$ 1.33 (-2 ...
Monday, 30 March 15
Q2' FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSED 4.47% HIGHER THAN Q4' CLOSING PRICE
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 5.42 per MT (-10.43%) month over month and US$ 1.60 (-3.32%) w ...
Sunday, 29 March 15
INDO - INDIA: SUPRAMAX & PANAMAX FREIGHT MARKET STEADY
COALspot.com: The freight market was almost stable as all segments slightly up except Panamax sector.
The BDI was up by just 0.85% week over w ...
Saturday, 28 March 15
IS NORTHERN EUROPE THE NEW MINING ELDORADO?
The Europe Mining 2015 Summit, organised by Global Summits organizer IRN on 17-18 June in Amsterdam, The Netherlands, will gather senior level repr ...
Saturday, 28 March 15
THE DRY BULK FLEET AT BREAKING POINT - CLARKSONS
The severe oversupply in the bulkcarrier fleet has contributed to the current trough in the dry bulk market, putting considerable financial pressur ...
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- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Australian Coal Association
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
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