We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Friday, 10 April 15
DRY BULK MARKET'S DOWNFALL ALSO OFFER INVESTMENT BARGAINS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Dry bulk market rates have fallen to historical lows over the past few weeks, with no clear path of recovery, at least in the near term. As such, m ...
Thursday, 09 April 15
CAPESIZE: RATES ARE STILL DISAPPOINTING - FEARNLEYS
Handy
The handy market had a stronger sentiment before the Easter holidays, but have as the bigger panamaxes seen a softening tendency this week. ...
Wednesday, 08 April 15
DRY BULK MARKET SEEMS UNABLE TO CATCH A BREAK - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market seems unable to catch a break these days.
According to Intermodal, following the market stabilization that p ...
Wednesday, 08 April 15
CHINA BURNS HALF OF THE WORLD'S COAL - CHRISTOPHER T. WHITTY
Intermodal Weekly Market Update
China is the world's largest consumer of coal, using more coal each year than the United States, the Europ ...
Tuesday, 07 April 15
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP KEEPS DROPPING; DROPPED 2% W-W
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q2 2015 declined month on month and week over week.
The Q2 swap was declined US$ 2.44 (5.14%) ...
|
|
|
Showing 3081 to 3085 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
|
| |
| |
|
