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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Wednesday, 01 April 15
SUPRAMAX & HANDY: RATES HELD STEADY TOWARDS THE WEEKEND
“Despite the fact that the Dry Bulk market closed off on the green last week, sentiment didn't improve by any means, not only because of ...
Wednesday, 01 April 15
WEEKLY SHIPPING MARKET UPDATE - INTERMODAL
There is no doubt that we are still witnessing a very challenging and at the same time very uncertain market, both with respect to dry chartering a ...
Wednesday, 01 April 15
Q4' 15 INDONESIA COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $45.15 W/E 27 MARCH 2015
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q2' 2015 drops month on month and week over week.
The Q2 swap declined US$ 1.54 (3.24%) mo ...
Tuesday, 31 March 15
RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS GAIN WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q2' 2015 declined month over month but increased week on week.
The Q2 swap has ...
Monday, 30 March 15
WORST IS OVER FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET, BUT THE PAIN WILL REMAIN FOR YEARS TO COME, SAYS BIMCO CHIEF ANALYST - HELLENIC SHIPPING
The current demise of the dry bulk market isn’t one to go away anytime soon. That doesn’t mean that it can’t improve, with all sh ...
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- The University of Queensland
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
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