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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Thursday, 19 November 15
Q3' 16 RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP CLOSED 9% LOWER THAN Q1' 16 DELIVERY PRICE
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q1’ 2016 up week over week and month over month.
The Q1’ 2016 swa ...
Thursday, 19 November 15
RATES FOR CAPES KEPT MOVING SOUTH - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: With the BDI currently standing at less than 30 points above the historical lows marked in February this year and with activity acros ...
Wednesday, 18 November 15
MARKET (SHIPPING) INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
Supply VS Demand
According to data from the IMF, global growth for 2015 is projected at 3.1 percent, 0.3 percentage point lower than in 2014, ...
Tuesday, 17 November 15
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR (SEMI) ANTHRACITE COAL FOR SEOCHEON POWER PLANT
COALspot.com: South Korean state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued an new tender for 70,000 Metric Tons of (Semi) Anthracite for Ja ...
Tuesday, 17 November 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS FALL: Q1'16 SLID 11.45% M-M
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery slid $4.75 per ton (11.45%) month over month to US$ 36.75 per ton. The swap ...
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Showing 2706 to 2710 news of total 6871 |
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- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PTC India Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The University of Queensland
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
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