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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Monday, 16 November 15
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR 1.295 MILLION TONS OF BITUMINOUS COAL FOR Q1 - Q2'16
COALspot.com: South Korean state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued an new tender for 1,295,000 Metric Tons (MT) of minimum 4,600 kc ...
Monday, 16 November 15
SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS DECLINE CONTINUES THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery declined US$ 6.05 (12.59%) per ton month over month.
A commodity swa ...
Monday, 16 November 15
CLARKSEA INDEX COMPETITION: IS IT ALL IN THE TIMING? - CLARKSONS
Readers of the Shipping Intelligence Weekly are invited each year to predict the value of the ClarkSea Index one year ahead in the first week of No ...
Monday, 16 November 15
DRY BULK MARKET: Q1' 2016 SHAPING UP TO BE A ' DISASTROUS' ONE OF PROJECTED LOWER IRON ORE IMPORTS FROM CHINA
Over the course of the past year or so, it’s been the drop of coal imports from China, which has had a detrimental effect on the course of dr ...
Friday, 13 November 15
WEAK CHINA POWER DEMAND DAMPENS COAL CONSUMPTION - FITCH
The weak growth in China's electricity consumption in 2015, together with increasing non-thermal power generation capacity are exerting more pr ...
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Showing 2711 to 2715 news of total 6871 |
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- White Energy Company Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Planning Commission, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
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