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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Monday, 23 November 15
NEGATIVE 2016 OUTLOOK FOR WESTERN EUROPEAN STEEL - SAYS FITCH RATINGS
COALspot.com: European steel in 2016 are both negative for the sector and for issuer ratings.
This reflects our expectation that import levels ...
Monday, 23 November 15
DRY BULK MARKET: NET FLEET GROWTH IS SLOWING DOWN, AS SHIP OWNERS ARE LOOKING FOR WAYS TO ALLEVIATING MARKET MELTDOWN - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has been in “meltdown” mode for a few weeks now, unable to find support and avoid the fall in historical lows. As s ...
Monday, 23 November 15
CS50 COAL INDEX CLOSED AT $40.27 PER TON; FELL 0.15% FROM LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: The 5700 GAR CS (i) coal index fell by US cents 3 per ton week over week on 20 November 2015. CS 57 (5700 GAR coal) index closed at U ...
Monday, 23 November 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS FALL FURTHER ON LOW DEMAND
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery declined US$ 6.75 (13.99%) per ton month over month.
A commodity swa ...
Sunday, 22 November 15
INDONESIA TO INDIA FREIGHT RATES TO REMAIN DULL NEXT WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI was down to historical lows closing at 498 points which is down by almost 95.77 per cent compared to 11,800 points in 2008.
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- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PTC India Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
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