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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Sunday, 22 November 15
INDIA COULD PROVIDE SILVER LINING FOR SHIPPING INDUSTRY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The rise of India as a global player in the shipping market could be just a couple of years away, as the country has the potential to become a seco ...
Friday, 20 November 15
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION FOR THE WEEK ENDING NOVEMBER '14; NO CHANGE FROM LAST WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 16.5 million shor ...
Friday, 20 November 15
NO IMPROVEMENT SEEN IN NEAR-TERM COAL DEMAND; SWAPS CLOSE LOWER
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q1 2016 declined month on month and flat on week over week. Price of coal seen no improvements this ...
Friday, 20 November 15
CHANGING CRUDE SUPPLY TRENDS MAY HELP EUROPEAN REFINERS - FITCH RATINGS
COALspot.com: Changes in global oil supply trends, including high Russian production, the expected renewal of Iranian heavy crude exports and the p ...
Thursday, 19 November 15
CHINA STEEL PRODUCTION CAPACITY TO PEAK IN 2016 - FITCH RATINGS
COALspot.com: Fitch Ratings today says that China's steel production capacity is likely to peak in 2016, with capacity elimination over the nex ...
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- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Planning Commission, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The University of Queensland
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
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