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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Friday, 27 November 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS UP FROM LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q1’ 2016 up week over week and month over month.
The Q1’ 2016 swa ...
Thursday, 26 November 15
ITALY'S STEAM COAL IMPORTS EXPECTED TO REACH 16 MILLION TONS AND COKING COAL IMPORTS TO AMOUNT TO 4 MILLION TONS - ASSOCARBONI
ASSOCARBONI LOOKS AT COAL FROM A DIFFERENT ANGLE
- “Coal has made huge steps towards environmental sustainability, making itself t ...
Thursday, 26 November 15
DRY BULK MARKET WILL REBOUND EVENTUALLY, BUT THINGS WILL BECOME EVEN WORSE BEFORE THEY IMPROVE SAYS SHIPBROKER - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
As the dry bulk market’s benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) reached an all-time late last week and has failed to rebound significantly eve ...
Thursday, 26 November 15
Q3'16 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FALLS 27.5% SINCE 20 FEB 2015
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery slid $5 per ton (12.05%) month over month to US$ 36.50 per ton. The s ...
Wednesday, 25 November 15
INDIA'S POWER GENERATORS FACE LOW, FALLING UTILISATION RATE - FITCH
COAlspot.com: Fitch Ratings says in a new report that the utilisation rate of India's thermal power generation capacity continued to decline in ...
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- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The University of Queensland
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
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- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
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