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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Wednesday, 17 August 22
CHINA'S COAL-RICH SHANXI MAKES STRIDES IN HIGH-QUALITY DEVELOPMENT - XINHUA
Shanxi, a major coal-producing province in north China, has made continuous advances in high-quality development over the past decade, according to ...
Wednesday, 17 August 22
PAXOCEAN, HONG LAM MARINE AND BUREAU VERITAS SIGN MOU TO DEVELOP AMMONIA BUNKER VESSEL DESIGN - BUREAU VERITAS
PaxOcean Engineering Pte. Ltd. has signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with Singapore-based bunker vessel operator Hong Lam Marine and class ...
Wednesday, 17 August 22
GOODFUELSS ASIA-PACIFIC BRANCH KICKSTARTS SUSTAINABLE BIOFUEL DELIVERIES WITH NYK AS FIRST CLIENT - GOOD FUELS
GoodFuels, the leading biofuels pioneer for the global transport industry, has today announced that it has successfully supplied sustainable marine ...
Tuesday, 16 August 22
EU BAN ON RUSSIAN COAL IMPORTS COMES INTO FORCE - DEUTSCHE WELLE
The European Union banned Russian coal imports in response to the invasion of Ukraine as part of sanctions in April. Since then, it’s been sc ...
Thursday, 11 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
On July 22nd, Ukraine signed a deal with Russia to release 22mn tons of grain from Ukraine’s 3 major ports (Yuzhny, Chornomorsk, Odesa). Such ...
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Showing 261 to 265 news of total 6871 |
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- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
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- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
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