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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Tuesday, 23 August 22
SHIPPING INDUSTRY TO REMOVE THE INDIAN OCEAN HIGH RISK AREA - BIMCO
After more than a decade of effective threat-reducing counter-piracy operations the shipping industry has removed the ‘Indian Ocean High Risk ...
Tuesday, 23 August 22
SHIPPING: GLOBAL TAX REFORM - WATSON FARLEY & WILLIAMS
OECD rules designed to implement a global minimum corporate tax rate for very large multinational groups have now been published and are expected t ...
Tuesday, 23 August 22
PARTIES CONCLUDE JOINT R&D AGREEMENT FOR WORLD’S FIRST AMMONIA FLOATING STORAGE AND REGASIFICATION BARGE CONTRIBUTING TO PROMOTING THE EARLY INTRODUCTION OF AMMONIA FUEL - NYK
NYK Line, Nihon Shipyard Co., Ltd. (NSY), ClassNK, and IHI Corporation (IHI) signed a joint research and development agreement for the commercializ ...
Monday, 22 August 22
INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT IMPOSED ON NEW PROGRESSIVE ROYALTIES FOR COAL
Indonesian President Joko Widodo has signed a Government Regulation (Number 26 of 2022) on 15 August 2022 related to the progressive royalty rates ...
Monday, 22 August 22
CHINA'S JULY RUSSIAN COAL IMPORTS HIT 5-YR HIGH AS WEST SHUNS MOSCOW - REUTERS
China’s coal imports from Russia jumped 14% in July from a year earlier to their highest in at least five years, as China bought discounted c ...
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Showing 251 to 255 news of total 6871 |
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- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The University of Queensland
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
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