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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Friday, 29 July 22
GLENCORE TO SUPPLY COAL TO NIPPON STEEL AT $375 PER TON - BLOOMBERG
Glencore Plc, agreed to supply coal to Nippon Steel at one of the highest prices ever paid by the Japan Bloomberg reported on July 27.
...
Friday, 29 July 22
GLOBAL COAL DEMAND IS SET TO RETURN TO ITS ALL-TIME HIGH IN 2022 - IEA
The world’s consumption of coal is set to rise slightly in 2022, taking it back to the record level it reached nearly a decade ago, according ...
Thursday, 28 July 22
CREW FAMILIARISATION IS CRITICAL WHEN TAKING OVER A VESSEL - WEST P&I CLUB
Knowledge to Elevate
When a vessel changes ownership and/or manager, it can take some considerable time before the new crew and mana ...
Thursday, 28 July 22
RETURN OF COAL A THREAT TO EUROPEAN COMPANIES' ESG RATINGS - REUTERS
European companies turning to coal as an alternative to Russian gas face a hit to their environmental, social and governance ratings, leaving them ...
Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal import ...
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Showing 271 to 275 news of total 6871 |
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- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Planning Commission, India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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