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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Sunday, 21 August 22
COAL-RICH POLAND FACES WINTER OF ENERGY DISCONTENT - DW
Poland uses 10 million tons of coal a year to heat households — a whopping 87% of all coal consumed in EU homes in 2019, according to the War ...
Saturday, 20 August 22
KOSPO TO IMPORT 240000 MT OF MIN 4400 KCAL/KG NCV STEAM COAL FOR OCTOBER;LOADING FROM RUSSIAN PORTS NOT ALLOWED
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an International tender for 240,000 MT of min 4,400kcal/kg to max. 4,999 kcal/kg NC ...
Wednesday, 17 August 22
INDIAN COMPANIES SWAPPING DOLLAR FOR ASIAN CURRENCIES TO BUY RUSSIAN COAL - REUTERS
Indian companies are using Asian currencies more often to pay for Russian coal imports, according to customs documents and industry sources, avoidi ...
Wednesday, 17 August 22
LNG: MAJOR INVESTMENT AND EXPANSION PHASE, DOUBLING OF LIQUEFACTION CAPACITY BY 2028 PROJECTED - CLARKSONS
Clarksons Research have released the latest version of their long standing annual review, LNG Trade & Transport, on to Shipping Intelligence Ne ...
Wednesday, 17 August 22
UNAFFORDABLE LNG PRICES UNDERMINE RAPID DEMAND GROWTH FORECASTS IN KEY ASIAN MARKETS - IEEFA
Sustained high prices may accelerate downward pressures on Asian LNG demand, clouding long-term industry outlooks
The global liquefi ...
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- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
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