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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Wednesday, 17 February 16
THE OWNERS FACING HISTORICAL LOW DRY BULK RATES; COAL IMPORTS TO CHINA IS STILL POINTING TO A STRONG TREND OF DECLINING CONSUMPTION
The sharp fall in dry bulk rates that has been taking place since the end of last year and has left owners facing historical low rates for a substa ...
Monday, 15 February 16
CALL THE DOCTOR! SHIPPING'S MEDICAL DRAMA UNFOLDS......- CLARKSONS
The recycling market has started 2016 with a bang, with a huge volume of tonnage heading to demolition facilities. Many of the key shipping markets ...
Monday, 15 February 16
CS 42 COAL INDEX ROSE 0.07% WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin decline 0.15 percent week over week to averaging $38.96 per ton on this past Friday, ...
Monday, 15 February 16
BALTIC INDEX MARGINALLY ROSE BY A POINT D-D; CAPESIZE INDEX DOWN 13 POINTS W-W; PANAMAX INDEX UP 29 POINTS W-W
COALspot.com: The freight markets continued to fall this past week.
The BDI, The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) of dry-bulk shipping freights, a measu ...
Friday, 12 February 16
DRY BULK MARKET'S FORTUNES STILL TIED WITH CHINA'S ECONOMY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The inevitable slowdown of the Chinese economy was expected to hurt dry bulk shipping, but few expected the blow to be this hard, especially given ...
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- Planning Commission, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
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