We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Wednesday, 24 February 16
PRIVATE EQUITY FUNDS LOOKING TO EXIT SHIPPING, MOST NOTABLY DRY BULK, AS OVERORDERING HAS RESULTED IN EXCESS TONNAGE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The injection of more than $13 billion in shipping from various private equity funds over the past few years has resulted in what many feared would ...
Wednesday, 24 February 16
THIRTEEN - NOT ALWAYS AN UNLUCKY NUMBER? - CLARKSONS
Back in early 1999 the price of a 5 year old Panamax bulkcarrier dipped to $13.5m, and ever since analysts have hailed purchase decisions made at t ...
Monday, 22 February 16
4200 GAR COAL INDEX SETTLES AT $27.02, DOWN 0.07% FROM LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin decline 0.17 percent week over week to averaging $38.89 per ton on this past Friday, ...
Monday, 22 February 16
FREIGHT MARKETS PICKED UP SLIGHTLY THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: The freight markets picked up slightly this past week.
The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) of dry-bulk shipping freights, a measure of gl ...
Friday, 19 February 16
INDONESIAN HBA HITS A NEW LOWS BELOW $51 A TON AS OVERSUPPLY, LOW DEMAND WOES PERSIST
COALspot.com: Low coal demand and excess supplies sent Indonesian benchmark coal price further deep in February 2016. HBA has slumped second time t ...
|
|
|
Showing 2551 to 2555 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The University of Queensland
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Australian Coal Association
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
|
| |
| |
|
