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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Friday, 12 February 16
COAL PRICES ARE EXPECTED TO DECLINE 13% IN 2016 TO $50 ATON, ON CONTINUED WEAK DEMAND AND OVERSUPPLY - WORLD BANK
COALspot.com: Thermal coal prices fell 9 percent in the fourth quarter on continued weak demand, high stocks, and surplus production, World Bank sa ...
Friday, 12 February 16
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION OFF 5.4% FROM LAST WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 12.9 million shor ...
Thursday, 11 February 16
GLOBAL NEWBUILDING ORDERBOOK IS SHRINKING ON A DAILY BASIS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
2016 has started right where 2015 left off when it comes to newbuilding ordering activity, i.e. there are slim pickings to be had from shipyards ar ...
Wednesday, 10 February 16
SOUTH AFRICA IS HOPING TO SHIP MORE COAL TO INDIA IN 2016
COALspot.com: South Africa is hoping to boost coal exports to India after shipping a record 75.4 million tonnes of coal in 2015, industry officials ...
Wednesday, 10 February 16
OWNERS APPEAR WILLING TO DISPOSE OF TONNAGE THE SOONEST IT HITS THE 10 YEAR MARK - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
COALspot.com: The last two months of 2015 made a case for traditional shipowners to invest in the dry bulk sector, doing so though based purely on ...
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- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
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