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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Monday, 08 February 16
DRY-BULK SHIPPING DIVING DEEP
COALspot.com: The freight markets continued to fall this past week.
The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) of dry-bulk shipping freights, a measure of glo ...
Monday, 08 February 16
DRY BULK: SHIPBROKER SEES BDI MARKET REACHING LOW POINT OF 236 POINTS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The endless pit that is the dry bulk market over the past two months, has been the issue of debate among ship owners, shipbroker and analysts alike ...
Friday, 05 February 16
COAL INDIA EYES COAL MINES IN SOUTH AFRICA - PTI
“Coal India Ltd has plans of acquiring coal mines in South Africa,” an official said. It is looking at acquiring mines in partnership w ...
Friday, 05 February 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT ROSE 4.2% TO 13.6 MMST
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 13.6 million shor ...
Thursday, 04 February 16
CAPESIZE: WEST AUSTRALIAN TO CHINA HAS BEEN CONCLUDED AT US$ 2.85 PMT AND THE C3 MARKET REMAINS INACTIVE - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
As everyone is getting ready for the Chinese new year, already depressed rates are under further pressure.
According to Fearnleys, ...
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- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
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