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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Monday, 11 April 16
ON THE TIGHTROPE, IT CAN BE HARD TO KEEP YOUR BALANCE.... - CLARKSONS
Today’s headlines often point towards the impact of the demand side on the state of health of the shipping markets. But despite the fact that ...
Monday, 11 April 16
WEEKLY CS (I) COAL INDEX FOR 5700 GAR COAL UP 0.03 CENTS, OR ABOUT 0.06 PERCENT, TO $48.21 A TON
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin fell 0.15 percent week over week to averaging $38.82 per ton on this past Friday, ac ...
Monday, 11 April 16
COAL IS NOT THE ENEMY TO FIGHT - ANDREA CLAVARINO, ASSOCARBONI
COALspot.com: “Coal is not the enemy to fight and electricity production from coal has an environmental impact in its lifecycle similar to na ...
Monday, 11 April 16
FORTY INDIAN COAL IMPORTERS UNDER THE DRI SCANNER FOR OVER-INVOICING : HINDU BUSINESS LINE
The Finance Ministry and the Directorate of Revenue Intelligence (DRI) of India are said to have stepped up investigations into the alleged over-in ...
Monday, 11 April 16
BDI ROSE TO ITS HIGHEST LEVEL IN FOUR MONTHS
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities continued to rose this week.
The freight market was ...
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- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
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