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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Thursday, 07 April 16
BIMCO AND GIIGNL PUBLISH A GROUNDBREAKING VOYAGE CHARTER PARTY FOR LNG TRADE
BIMCO and the International Group of Liquefied Natural Gas Importers (GIIGNL) have today jointly issued the first definitive voyage charter party & ...
Wednesday, 06 April 16
HOW LONG SHIPPING CRISIS WILL BE; WHEN SHOULD OWNERS EXPECT THE BULK CARRIERS TO BECOME PROFITABLE? - INTERMODAL
It is the consensus that dry bulk shipping has been in a crisis for quite some time now. Bulk carrier values are at historical low levels, therefor ...
Tuesday, 05 April 16
DRY BULK REVISITS 1980S LOWS AND FACES UNCERTAIN LONGER TERM OUTLOOK - MSI | HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
With the market near bottom, attention is turning to the length of the downturn, the effect on asset values and the impact of broader demand side c ...
Monday, 04 April 16
THE LOADING, AND SUBSEQUENT DISCHARGE, OF UNSAFE NICKEL ORE - ALL TIME TO 'COUNT' - THE STANDARD CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In a recent, published, London arbitration award the English tribunal has held that all time lost as a result of loading, ...
Monday, 04 April 16
INDONESIA CS57 COAL INDEX SLIDES SLIGHTLY WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin fell 0.07 percent week over week to averaging $38.88 per ton on this past Friday, ac ...
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Showing 2491 to 2495 news of total 6871 |
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- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Australian Coal Association
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- The University of Queensland
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
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