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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Monday, 18 April 16
SOUTH KOREA STATE-OWNED UTILITY KOMIPO INVITES COAL BIDS FOR BORYEONG POWER PLANT
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a new tender for 70,000 Metric Tons of 4,600 kcal/kg NAR coal for ...
Monday, 18 April 16
SOUTH AFRICA RB1 COAL HAS LOST GROUND IN INDIA; RB2 MAY LOSE GRIP IF THE PRICE CROSSES US$ 50 A TON - TRADERS
COALspot.com: Indian coal consumers preferred to buy South Africa RB2 coal instead of RB1 coal recent months due to RB2's low CFR price level. ...
Monday, 18 April 16
CAPESIZE INDEX ROSE 44.66 PER CENT WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities continued to rose this week.
The freight market was ...
Friday, 15 April 16
PANAMAX MARKET CONTINUES TO FIRM - FEARNLEYS
Cape
It has been a positive freight market for the past few weeks, however, this week the market is taking a small breather, says Fearnleys in it ...
Friday, 15 April 16
U.S WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT FALLS ACROSS ALL BASINS - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 10.2 million short tons (mm ...
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- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
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