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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Friday, 08 April 16
COASTAL ENERGEN CROSSES GENERATION OF 1068 MW AND EXPORT OF 1004 MW FROM ITS 1200 MW IPP
COALspot.com: Coal & Oil (C&O) Group, an India centric Energy & Infrastructure company announced that their Coastal Energen' ...
Friday, 08 April 16
WEEKLY US COAL PRODUCTION ESTIMATES DIP 5.4% TO 11 MMST
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 11 million short ...
Friday, 08 April 16
MINISTER OF ENERGY AND MINERAL RESOURCES OF INDONESIA TO ISSUE REGULATION TO GUARANTEE THE COAL SUPPLY TO ITS 35K POWER PLANT PROJECTS
COALspot.com: In order to guarantee the supply of coal for 35,000 megawatt (mw) coal based power plants ( still in planning stage), the Minister of ...
Thursday, 07 April 16
CHINA STEEL CAPACITY CUTS FACE SOCIAL, FINANCIAL HURDLES - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings says today that the Chinese government's supply-side reform of the steel sector faces immense social and financial challenges. Th ...
Thursday, 07 April 16
PANAMAX RATES ARE FIRMING IN BOTH HEMISHEPHERES - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
With a great volume our of west Australia, rates were finally moving to upper 3's. and stabilizing towards the middle of the week in ...
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- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
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- VISA Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
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- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
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- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Planning Commission, India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
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- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
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- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
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- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
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