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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Tuesday, 26 April 16
INDONESIA BANNED COAL EXPORTS TO PHILIPPINES BY BARGES DUE TO SECURITY CONCERN
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) on behalf of the government of Indonesia has Freeze coal exports by barges to Phi ...
Tuesday, 26 April 16
NEWBUILDING DEMAND DOWN EVERYWHERE? - CLARKSONS
Newbuild activity provides one indication of an owner country’s likely future fleet growth, though secondhand sale and purchase and demolitio ...
Monday, 25 April 16
CHINESE STEEL PRICE SURGE NOT SUSTAINABLE - FITCH
The rapid increase in Chinese steel prices so far this year is not sustainable, as it is largely due to a seasonal pick-up in construction and elev ...
Monday, 25 April 16
WEEKLY CS (I) COAL INDICES END ALMOST FLAT
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin up 0.05 percent week over week to averaging $38.67 per ton on this past Friday, acco ...
Monday, 25 April 16
BALTIC DRY INDEX ENDS WEEK ON A POSITIVE NOTE
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities continued to rose this week.
The freight market was ...
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- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Australian Coal Association
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
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