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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Thursday, 28 April 16
PRICES OF POWER-STATION COAL IN INDONESIA IS INCREASING
COALspot.com: Inquiries for Indonesian 4200 - 4400 Kcal/kg GAR thermal coal cargoes from India suddenly increase recent days.
A Jakarta-based ...
Thursday, 28 April 16
KOMIPO TO IMPORT 710K MT OF BITUMINOUS COAL DURING JULY - SEPTEMBER 2016
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a new tender for 710,000 Metric Tons of Bituminous Coal for its B ...
Thursday, 28 April 16
CAPE: BIT MORE OPTIMISM IN THE MARKET; SUPRAMAX: FORWARD CURVE IS FALLING - FEARNLEYS
Cape
A bit of a slower week. Activity level has dropped, though the rates do still remain firm, says Fearnleys in its latest weekly report.
...
Wednesday, 27 April 16
THE OCEAN SHIPPING EXPERIENCED DRAMATIC VOLATILITY IN THE BEGINNING OF 2016 - PANOS TSILINGIRIS
Shipping’s new (ab)normal
The global economy and ocean shipping experienced dramatic volatility in the beginning of 2016 and as the glob ...
Wednesday, 27 April 16
INDONESIAN COAL MINER KIDECO REPORTED NET PROFIT OF US$138.1 MILLION IN 2015
COALspot.com: Kideco Jaya Agung, one of the Indonesia's leading coal miners has reported net profit of US$138.1 million on revenue of US$1.65 b ...
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- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
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- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
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- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
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- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
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- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
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- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Minerals Council of Australia
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- Aditya Birla Group - India
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- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
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