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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Monday, 02 May 16
INDIA'S GANGAVARAM PORT SETS ALL INDIA RECORD FOR NON-COKING COAL DISCHARGE
COALspot.com: Gangavaram Port, the deepest and the most modern port in India, has created yet another historical milestone record by discharging 15 ...
Monday, 02 May 16
CS (I) 5000 GAR COAL INDEX CLOSES 0.11% HIGHER, 5700 GAR COAL RISES 0.07% W/W
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin up 0.28 percent week over week to averaging $38.78 per ton on this past Friday, acco ...
Monday, 02 May 16
FREIGHT RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE FLAT TO SOFT THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities continued to rose this week.
The freight market was ...
Saturday, 30 April 16
40 YEARS OF HANDLING COAL AT THE BTW IN WILHELMSHAVEN UNDER THE RHENUS FLAG
Press Release: The first bulk carrier with coal on board docked at the Bulk Terminal Wilhelmshaven (BTW), which is operated by Rhenus Midgar ...
Friday, 29 April 16
U.S. COAL IMPORTS IN Q4' 15 DECLINED TO 2.7 MMST FROM 3 MMST IN Q3' 15
COALspot.com – U.S the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 10.3 million short tons (mm ...
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- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The University of Queensland
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
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