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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Tuesday, 10 May 16
VOLATILITY? VARIATION NO ENIGMA TO SHIPPING..... - CLARKSONS
Along with cyclicality, the other characteristic of the shipping markets which receives frequent mention is volatility. This is so evident that the ...
Monday, 09 May 16
INDONESIAN CS COAL INDICES UP CONTINUES; POSITIVE DIRECTION
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin up 0.10 percent week over week to averaging $38.82 per ton on this past Wednesday, a ...
Monday, 09 May 16
DRY BULK SHIPPING TO WITNESS STEADY PROGRESS MOVING FORWARD ON THE BACK OF GROWING TRADE VOLUMES - BIMCO
In its latest short-term analysis of the shipping markets, BIMCO reiterated its optimism on the prospects of the dry bulk market moving forward. Ac ...
Monday, 09 May 16
BALTIC DRY INDEX ENDS WEEK ON A NEGATIVE NOTE
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities decline this week.
The freight market was weak and a ...
Friday, 06 May 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION UP 9 PERCENT W/W; DOWN 35.3 PERCENT Y/Y - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 11.3 million short to ...
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- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- VISA Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
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