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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Tuesday, 17 May 16
CHINA THERMAL-POWER OVERSUPPLY TO WORSEN - FITCH
COALspot.com: The overcapacity in thermal-power generation in China is likely to worsen in 2016 to 2017, Fitch Ratings says in a new report.
F ...
Tuesday, 17 May 16
ON YOUR MARKS: TRACKING CHINESE TRADE - CLARKSONS
One of the major drivers behind the challenges currently facing many of the shipping markets has been slower demand growth. World seaborne trade gr ...
Monday, 16 May 16
INDONESIAN WEEKLY COAL INDICES AT POSITIVE LEVELS - CS (I) COAL INDEX
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin up 0.31 percent week over week to averaging $38.94 per ton this past week, shows CS ...
Monday, 16 May 16
OPEC SEES RIVAL OIL PRODUCTION DECLINING
Crude Oil Price Movements
The OPEC Reference Basket averaged $37.86/b in April, a gain of $3.21 or 9.3%. This was 40% higher than the lows reache ...
Monday, 16 May 16
THE FREIGHT MARKET WAS WEAK AND ALL SEGMENTS EXCEPT PANAMAX WERE DOWN
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities decline this week.
The freight market was weak and a ...
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- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Planning Commission, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Australian Coal Association
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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