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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Friday, 13 May 16
COAL CARGOES - SOME RECENT DEVELOPMENTS: SWEDISH CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Indonesia continues to be amongst the world’s major exporters of coal, some 426Mt being traded in 2013 mostly to In ...
Friday, 13 May 16
US WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION IS RUNNING 33% BELOW THE SAME PERIOD IN 2015 - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 10.9 million short tons (mm ...
Friday, 13 May 16
DRY BULK SHIPPING MARKET RECOVERY WILL BE A LONG, HARD-FOUGHT BATTLE - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Anyone who expects a strong rally in dry bulk market rates to end the industry’s downturn will be bitterly disappointed. By contrast – ...
Wednesday, 11 May 16
U.S. FORECAST COAL PRODUCTION IS EXPECTED TO DECLINED BY 150 MMST IN 2016; THE LARGEST DECLINE SINCE 1949 - EIA
COALspot.com: EIA estimates that U.S. coal production in April was 46 million short tons (MMst), a 6 MMst (12%) decrease from the previous month an ...
Wednesday, 11 May 16
MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
On Saturday 7th May, Riyadh replaced the long-serving oil minister of more than two decades, Ali-Al-Naimi, as part of a major government overhaul, ...
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Showing 2436 to 2440 news of total 6871 |
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- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Planning Commission, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The University of Queensland
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
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