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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Thursday, 19 May 16
AUSTRALIAN IRON ORE CARGOES PUSHED UP THE FREIGHT RATES FOR CAPE THIS WEEK - FEARNLEYS
Cape
It has been a big jump in the freight rates for Cape size this week, says Fearnleys in its latest weekly report. All of the Australian iron ...
Thursday, 19 May 16
DISPUTE OVER VAT ON COAL DRAGS ON, CAUSING DOUBLE-BLOW TO MINERS - JP
The dispute over the value-added tax ( VAT ) mechanism between coal miners operating under third-generation contracts and the Finance Ministry&rsqu ...
Wednesday, 18 May 16
DRY BULK OUTLOOK REMAINS GLOOMY SAYS DANISH SHIP FINANCE, AS SHIPPING NEEDS TO RETHINK BUSINESS MODEL - HELLENIC SHIPPING
Our Shipping Market Review – May 2016 is devoted to the fourth industrial revolution. To understand the truly disruptive nature of the fourth ...
Wednesday, 18 May 16
LONG TERM FUNDAMENTALS ARE SLOWLY IMPROVING FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET - INTERMODAL
As we are approaching the end of the first half of the year, there is a number of market participants over at the dry bulk sector that have started ...
Tuesday, 17 May 16
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE DECLINE AGAIN
COALspot.com: The Indonesia Coal Benchmark Price declined in May 2016.
The Director General of Mineral and Coal of Indonesia, the regulator of ...
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Showing 2426 to 2430 news of total 6871 |
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- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The University of Queensland
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
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