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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Monday, 11 July 16
DRY BULK MARKET: UP TO 30 MILLION DWT OF OLDER BULKERS WILL NEED TO BE SCRAPPED BY END OF 2017 FOR MARKET TO FIND BALANCE
Tonnage oversupply in the dry bulk market is more than evident, as newbuildings have been hitting the water faster than owners can scrap their olde ...
Friday, 08 July 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT UP 3% TO 14.1 MMST - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S, world’s second largest coal producers has produced approximately totalled an estimated 14.1 million short tons (mms ...
Thursday, 07 July 16
PANAMAX : THE TENDENCY FROM LAST WEEK CONTINUES WITH A CONSIDERABLY STRONGER SENTIMENT ALL ACROSS THE BLOCK - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Rates have been holding at steady levels over the last weeks but towards end of this period they are becoming under more pressure as gen ...
Thursday, 07 July 16
CONSOLIDATION TO RULE OVER SHIPPING, AS EXECUTIVES SEEK INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES IN CHINA, INDIA AND EUROPE SAYS NORTON ROSE SURVEY
The transport sector is looking to Asia Pacific as the key market for investment over the next five years, according to the seventh The way ahead T ...
Wednesday, 06 July 16
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR 780000 MT OF BITUMINOUS COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a new tender for 780,000 Metric Tons of Bituminous Coal for its B ...
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- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
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