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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Tuesday, 19 July 16
INDONESIAN THERMAL COAL INDEXES CONTINUALLY FIRM UP ON ROBUST BUYING INTEREST - CS COAL INDEX
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin rose One percent week over week to averaging $40.38 per ton this past week, shows CS ...
Monday, 18 July 16
FROM PIT TO PORT: DRY BULK NEEDS A NEW PATH TO PROFITABILITY - TOC EUROPE
During the golden years for commodities, from 2005 to 2014, high demand and big profit margins pushed companies to produce more and more, sacrifici ...
Monday, 18 July 16
BALTIC DRY INDEX REMAIN FIRM, UP BY 5.97 WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities continued to remain firm with all segments ending in posi ...
Friday, 15 July 16
US COAL PRODUCTION DOWN 8.4% WEEK-OVER-WEEK
COALspot.com – U.S, world’s second largest coal producers has produced approximately totalled an estimated 12.9 million short tons (mms ...
Thursday, 14 July 16
SHIPPING'S HALF YEAR REPORT - 'MUST DO BETTER' - CLARKSONS
It’s the time of year, with the school holidays and end of term approaching, that many pupils will nervously take home their school reports t ...
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- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The University of Queensland
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Australian Coal Association
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
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