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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Friday, 01 July 16
BREXIT SET TO HURT SHIPPING IN THE LONG-TERM AS IT WILL TAKE ITS TOLL IN THE GLOBAL ECONOMY'S GROWTH - HELLENIC SHIPPING
Setting aside the short-term negative impact of the Brexit, in terms of stock market and currency volatility, it’s more than evident that the ...
Friday, 01 July 16
U.S'S COAL EXPORTS HAVE DECLINED FOR TWELVE QUARTERS IN A ROW - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S, world’s one of the largest coal producers has produced approximately totalled an estimated 13.7 million short t ...
Thursday, 30 June 16
CAPE - THIS WEEK'S FREIGHT AND ACTIVITY LEVEL HAVE KEPT STABLE - FEARNLEYS
Cape
This week’s freight and activity level have kept stable. It is support at the present levels and despite a volatile market the freight ...
Thursday, 30 June 16
OIL PRODUCT TANKERS EARNINGS DECLINE AS STOCKBUILDING SLOWS DOWN - BIMCO
BIMCO’s expectations remain as the oil product tanker fleet continues to grow with earnings at the lowest since Q3 in 2014. But there is stil ...
Wednesday, 29 June 16
THE DRY BULK INDICES, OPPOSITE TO MOST GLOBAL MARKET INDICES, ROSE END OF LAST WEEK
Last week closed off with a massive shockwave for markets across the world following the British referendum, the result of which will mark the begi ...
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- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- White Energy Company Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
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- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
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- Mercator Lines Limited - India
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