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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Wednesday, 13 July 16
EIA FORECASTS U.S. COAL EXPORTS TO DECLINE BY 15 MMST IN 2016 AND BY 4 MMST IN 2017
COALspot.com: U.S. coal production in June was 57 million short tons (MMst), a 6 MMst (13%) increase from May and 9 MMst (14%) lower than in June 2 ...
Wednesday, 13 July 16
2015 VS. 2016; THE DRY BULK DEMOLITION DERBY - JOHN N. COTZIAS
In the first half of the year 373 Bulkers and General Cargo ships were scrapped representing 23.8mil tons of dwt carrying capacity.
Comparing ...
Tuesday, 12 July 16
DUE TO LONG HOLIDAYS, CS COAL INDICES HELD AT THE SAME LEVEL OF THE PREVIOUS WEEK
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin was flat week over week to averaging $39.98 per ton this past week.
Due to the ...
Monday, 11 July 16
COAL MARKETS SAW IMPROVED PRICES IN H1 2016 - SGX'S COMMODITIES MID-YEAR REFLECTION
COALspot.com: Coal
Coal markets saw improved prices in H1 2016 with the benchmark coking coal and thermal coal spot prices rising 18% and 25%, re ...
Monday, 11 July 16
THE MAIN SEA FREIGHT INDEX, BDI ROSE FURTHER ON 8 JULY DUE TO STRONG DEMAND FOR PANAMAX SHIPS
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose this past week. The BDI was up 3.84 percent from las ...
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- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The University of Queensland
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Australian Coal Association
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
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