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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Tuesday, 02 August 16
INDONESIAN CS COAL INDICES STAY POSITIVE
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin rose 0.71% week over week to averaging $41.12 per ton this past week, shows CS (i) C ...
Monday, 01 August 16
4200 GAR INDONESIAN COAL PRICE MAY TOUCH $ 32/33 A TON LEVELS SOON
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal prices are likely surge further in 2016 as the recent price movement in Indonesian coal markets suggests that the mar ...
Monday, 01 August 16
BALTIC INDEX ENDED NEGATIVE NOTE THIS PAST WEEK ON WEAKER RATES ACROSS ALL LARGE VESSEL SEGMENTS
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities slide slightly as Cape, Panamax and Supramax segments end ...
Friday, 29 July 16
U.S. COAL OUTPUT SLIPS SLIGHTLY WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers has produced approximately totalled an estimated 15 million short tons ( ...
Thursday, 28 July 16
FITCH RAISES CORPORATE OIL PRICE ASSUMPTION FOR 2016 TO USD42
Fitch Ratings has raised the 2016 oil price assumptions it uses when rating energy-sector corporates, but expects record high inventories to slow a ...
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- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Minerals Council of Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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