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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Thursday, 01 September 16
SUPRAMAX GETTING LEVELS OF MID/HIGHER 7K DELIVERY SINGAPORE FOR TRIPS TO CHINA AND AROUND 9K FOR DIRECTION INDIA - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
This week started slower with London on bank holiday Monday. The south east Asian market seems to have been taking a breather with chart ...
Thursday, 01 September 16
AUSTRALIA'S NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 2.33 PERCENT MORE COAL IN JULY
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped $AU 1.10 bill ...
Wednesday, 31 August 16
THE DRY BULK MARKET MANAGED TO FIND FURTHER SUPPORT DURING THE LAST DAYS OF THE SUMMER SEASON - INTERMODAL
The Dry Bulk market managed to find further support during the last days of the summer season, with the BDI climbing above 700 last Friday, reachin ...
Tuesday, 30 August 16
THE SUDDEN SURGE IN IRON ORE TRADE HAS CREPT UP ON THE MARKET THIS PAST WEEK - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
The sudden surge in Iron ore trade has crept up on the market this past week bringing about a change in the prospects for Capes. Continued increase ...
Monday, 29 August 16
THE 5000 GAR THERMAL COAL INDEX HAS STRENGTHENED BY 9.90% SINCE JANUARY
COALspot.com: A rally in thermal coal prices over the past few months, after years of decline, is still continuing upward and it is expected to ral ...
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Australian Coal Association
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- White Energy Company Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
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