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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Monday, 03 October 16
THERMAL COAL PRICE SHOOTS UP AND MADE THEIR VERTICAL MOVE IN 5 YEARS; PRICE RALLY CONTINUES
COALspot.com: A rally in thermal coal prices over the past few months, after years of decline, is still continuing and it is expected to rally at l ...
Monday, 03 October 16
DRY-BULK SHIPPING FREIGHTS SLIDE IN SOFTENING SPOT MARKET
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities decline slightly and ending in a negative note this past ...
Friday, 30 September 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT FELL 2.3% - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 15.7 million short ton ...
Friday, 30 September 16
OPEC CUT SUPPORTS SLOW OIL RECOVERY, NOT STRONG REBOUND - FITCH
OPEC's oil production target announced this week signals the potential for greater co-ordination among its members, but the target itself is la ...
Thursday, 29 September 16
FREIGHT RATES MIGHT CONTINUE TO SLIDE NEXT WEEK DUE TO HOLIDAYS IN CHINA
Supramax
Flat start to week followed by a slight gain in rates for Supramaxes, says Fearnleys in its latest weekly report.
According to Fear ...
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- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
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