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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Wednesday, 28 September 16
WITHOUT A DOUBT FREIGHT RATES HAVE MOVED UP A BIT TO HEALTHIER LEVELS - INTERMODAL
As we are approaching Q4, it is interesting to perform a review of the last nine months with respect to the second-hand prices of Supramax and Pana ...
Tuesday, 27 September 16
THE CAPESIZE RATE OF INCREASE HAS BEEN IMPRESSIVE, UP 39% W/W AND 123% MONTH TO DATE - ALLIED
The Dry bulk market has seen a rare shine in its performance as the capesize sector manages to rally at an unprecedented rate compared to its perfo ...
Monday, 26 September 16
COAL PRICES HAVE BEEN MOVING STEADILY HIGHER AFTER YEARS OF DECLINE
COALspot.com: A rally in thermal coal prices over the past few months, after years of decline, is still continuing and it is expected to rally at l ...
Monday, 26 September 16
THE FREIGHT MARKET WAS FIRM; ALL SEGMENTS WERE UP THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose and ending in a positive note this past week. The BD ...
Friday, 23 September 16
"COLLATERAL LIES" DO NOT NECESSARILY UNDERMINE AN INSURANCE CLAIM
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
An insured was not precluded from recovering under an insurance policy even though it had made a false statement during t ...
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- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- ASAPP Information Group - India
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