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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Friday, 07 October 16
CEYLON SHIPPING CORPORATION HAS TAKEN DELIVERY OF COAL CARRIER MV.CEYLON PRINCESS
Sri Lanka’s Ceylon Shipping Corporation (CSC) has taken delivery of its second newly built bulk carrier for the transportation of coal to pow ...
Friday, 07 October 16
U.S. YEAR-TO-DATE COAL PRODUCTION TOTALLED AN ESTIMATED 540.5 MMST; DOWN 21.9% Y-O-Y, SAYS EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16.7 million short ton ...
Thursday, 06 October 16
SHIPS IN PACIFIC ACHIEVE JUST ABOVE $10K DAILY FOR A BRAZIL ROUND VOYAGE - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Slower week with limited activity due to holidays in the East. Mixed feelings within different markets, with slight downturn in Pacific ...
Wednesday, 05 October 16
OPEC TO SHUT OFF MORE THAN 6 PERCENT OF ITS PRODUCTION; MIXED FEELING AMONGST TRADERS - ALLIED
OPEC recent accord to shut off more than 6 percent of its production this past week has been met with mixed feeling amongst traders. As we mo ...
Wednesday, 05 October 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT
On September 27th the OPEC petroleum and energy ministers arrived in Algeria to attend the International Energy Forum, which brought together produ ...
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- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PTC India Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Australian Coal Association
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
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