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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Friday, 23 September 16
EIA SEES U.S. COAL WEEKLY OUTPUT INCREASE
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16.1 million short ton ...
Thursday, 22 September 16
CHINA IS THE PRICE-SETTING COUNTRY FOR GLOBAL THERMAL COAL
COALspot.com: China has been the driver of global coal growth since 2009. When China became the largest coal importer in 2011, the country also has ...
Thursday, 22 September 16
SUPRAMAXES ARE ACHIEVING AROUND $7000 FOR A TRIP WITH SINGAPORE DELIVERY VIA INDONESIA TO CHINA
Supramax
A slow start to the week in the Supramax segment in the Atlantic with not much being reported.
In the Blacksea Supramaxes are getti ...
Wednesday, 21 September 16
THE CAPESIZE MARKET HAS BEEN ON A RALLYING TREND SINCE THE END OF AUGUST - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
The Capesize market has been on a rallying trend since the end of August, fuelled mainly by the chase by traders to pre-stock before the typical pi ...
Wednesday, 21 September 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS MAKRINOS
Amidst a challenging dry bulk and tanker market, very little time has been spent on the offshore industry developments during the past couple of ye ...
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- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PTC India Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
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