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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Tuesday, 18 October 16
PANAMAX: A FAIRLY POSITIVE END TO THE WEEK - ALLIED
Capesize
Things seemed to be moving sideways during the first half of the week, with resistance being felt as owners tried to resist any further ...
Monday, 17 October 16
THE FREIGHT MARKET WAS SOFTENED IN ALL SEGMENTS THIS PAST WEEK - VISTAAR
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities decline slightly and ending in a negative note this past ...
Friday, 14 October 16
SUPRAMAXES: DELIVERY SINGAPORE ARE SETTLING AROUND HIGH 6K'S FOR COAL TRIPS TO CHINA VIA INDO - FEARNLEY
Supramax
Wait and see attitude prevailing all over the market.
There have been several fresh cargoes, which have been efficiently covered by ...
Friday, 14 October 16
U.S. SHIPPED 3.3 MMST COAL IN JULY 2016; DECLINE 40% M/M
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16.6 million short ton ...
Wednesday, 12 October 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
Another Monday has gone by, bringing with it further turbulence for oil. A series of meetings between high-production nations Russia & Saudi Ar ...
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- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
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- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
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- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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