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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Thursday, 17 November 16
FROTHY THERMAL COAL PRICES POINT TO DOWNSIDE PRESSURES IN 2017 - FITCH
Fitch Ratings says in an Outlook Report that the Asian thermal coal industry will remain under pressure in 2017 due to more-than-adequate capacity ...
Thursday, 17 November 16
CHINA STEEL EXPORTS TO REMAIN HIGH IN 2017, FITCH SAYS
Fitch Ratings expects Chinese steel exports to remain at around 100 million metric tons (Mt) in 2017, due to flat 'apparent' consumption an ...
Wednesday, 16 November 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT
Going through a relatively interesting second half of the year so far in the ship repair sector, we are experiencing a volatile climate of differen ...
Tuesday, 15 November 16
CHINA, FOR MANY YEARS NOW HAS SERVED AS A MAJOR GROWTH ENGINE FOR ASIA - ALLIED SHIPPING RESEARCH
It’s been a turbulent couple of days after the announcement of the U.S. Presidential results in the early hours of Wednesday.
After week ...
Monday, 14 November 16
KOMIPO'S SEOCHEON POWER PLANT TO IMPORT 240,000 MT OF SEMI / ANTHRACITE COAL FOR Q1'17
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a new tender for 240K mt of Semi-Anthracite and Anthracite Coal f ...
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Showing 2211 to 2215 news of total 6871 |
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- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Planning Commission, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
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