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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Monday, 21 November 16
CHINA IS ESTIMATED TO SEE HIGHEST IMPORTED COAL DEMAND LEVEL IN 2017, POLL SAYS
“Which country is estimated to see highest imported coal demand level in 2017?”
The on-line opinion poll conducted by COALsp ...
Monday, 21 November 16
KOMIPO IS LOOKING FOR 140K MT OF SUB-BITUMINOUS COAL FOR FEB-MAR 2017 LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a new tender for 140,000 Metric Tons of Sub-Bituminous coal for i ...
Monday, 21 November 16
BALTIC DRY INDEX SURGES TO 1257 POINTS W/E 18 NOV; BPI ROSE 37.3% W/W
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rally continues this past week and ending on a positive n ...
Friday, 18 November 16
CAPESIZE: THE COMMODITIES PRICES ARE INCREASING, RESULTING IN MORE DEMAND AND CONSEQUENTLY RATES ARE MAKING A BIG JUMP - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Apart from booming S. Africa where owners have obtained USD 14-15k to MEG/India and around mid USD 12k to China, the Pacific market has ...
Friday, 18 November 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION TOTALS 16.8 MMST, DOWN 0.8%, SAYS EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16.8 million short ton ...
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- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- MS Steel International - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
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