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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Monday, 28 November 16
BALTIC DRY INDEX FALLS TO 1181 POINT, DOWN 76 POINTS W/W
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities down slightly and ending in a negative note this past wee ...
Thursday, 24 November 16
SUPRAMAX: SOUTH AFRICA STILL STRONG WITH OWNERS ACHIEVING AROUND USD 14-15K FOR TRIPS EAST - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
A positive kick-off in both the Atlantic and the Pacific. Very healthy rates within USG, some supras receiving well over 20k for trips t ...
Wednesday, 23 November 16
MARKET INSIGHT - CHRISTOPHER THOMAS WHITTY
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is due to finalize a reduction in total production at its next scheduled meeting in Vi ...
Tuesday, 22 November 16
ITALY'S STEAM COAL IMPORTS EXPECTED TO DECLINE 7% Y/Y TO 15 MILLION TONS IN 2017 - ITALIAN COAL ASSOCIATION
Italy’s steam coal imports expected to decline to 15 million tons in 2017, or 7% less imports compared to 2016. The coking coal imports are e ...
Tuesday, 22 November 16
THE COMMODITIES MARKETS HAD SHOWED GREATER PROMISE SINCE THE SUMMER PERIOD - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
We have all borne witness to the sluggish pace of trade growth witnessed during the course of the past 4 years as well as the even slower pace note ...
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- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Planning Commission, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Australian Coal Association
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The University of Queensland
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
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