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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Wednesday, 08 February 17
MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS MAKRINOS
The challenges the oil market has witnessed since the end of 2014 has resulted in a crisis for the global offshore oil and gas exploration industry ...
Tuesday, 07 February 17
WE ARE STILL RIDING ON A WAVE OF MARKET IMPROVEMENT, WITH THE GLOBAL TRADE OF MOST COMMODITIES STILL SHOWING SIGNS OF IMPROVING GROWTH - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
The end of 2016 came with a rejuvenated sentiment amongst most traders and investors, in part through the sigh of relief that 2016 was finally comi ...
Monday, 06 February 17
AFTER MONTHS OF GAINS, THE INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT DECLARED MONTHLY COAL BENCHMARK PRICE IS STEADILY DROPPING
COALspot.com: Over the past two months, the HBA of Indonesian thermal coal has dropped around 18.06 percent. It sank to $ 83.32 per ton for Februar ...
Monday, 06 February 17
THE FREIGHT MARKET CONTINUED ITS DOWNFALL IN ALL SEGMENTS
COALspot.com: Due to Lunar year holidays and celebration, the Freight market was declined in all segments week ending 27 January. The fall was cont ...
Friday, 03 February 17
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR 1.13 MILLION TONS OF BITUMINOUS COAL FOR Q2' 17
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a new tender for 1,130,000 Metric Tons of Bituminous coal f ...
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- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Planning Commission, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The University of Queensland
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Australian Coal Association
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
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