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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Wednesday, 15 February 17
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Looking at the state of the Dry Bulk market exactly a year ago, there is no doubt that there is a significant improvement and despite the fact that ...
Tuesday, 14 February 17
OPTIMISM HAS STARTED TO SLOWLY FLOW BACK INTO THE DRY BULK MARKET - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
Optimism has started to slowly flow back into the dry bulk market, with many in the market showing renewed optimism as the Pacific basin starts to ...
Monday, 13 February 17
COMBINED COAL SALES OF BUMI RESOURCES ROSE TO 87.7 MILLION TONS IN FY'16; UP 10.6 PERCENT Y/Y
COALspot.com: Combined Coal Sales of Bumi Resources rose to 87.7 million tons in FY’16 compared with 79.3 million tons in FY’15. ...
Monday, 13 February 17
THE FREIGHT MARKET CONTINUED TO TUMBLE IN FEBRUARY
COALspot.com: The Freight market was continued its downfall in all segments except Panamax for the week ending 10 February 2017.
The Balt ...
Friday, 10 February 17
U.S. COAL OUTPUT IS ESTIMATED TO HAVE DECLINED BY 158 MMST IN 2016 TO 739 MMST, SAYS EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 17 million short tons ...
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- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Australian Coal Association
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
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