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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Tuesday, 21 February 17
CHINA SUSPENDS COAL IMPORTS FROM NORTH KOREA FROM 19 FEB
COALspot.com: China is suspended coal imports from North Korea until December 2017. China says it will suspend all imports of coal from North Korea ...
Monday, 20 February 17
OCEAN FREIGHT RATES SLIGHTLY UP WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: The Freight market was firmed up this past week. The Panamax segment was declined for the week ending 17 February 2017.
The Balt ...
Friday, 17 February 17
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION SLIPS SLIGHTLY WEEK OVER WEEK, SAYS EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16.5 million sh ...
Thursday, 16 February 17
CAPE MARKET HAVE EXPERIENCED A STRONG DOWNTURN - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Market has shifted sides from Atlantic to Pacific, where Atlantic is now lagging behind with little action and sliding indices, notably ...
Thursday, 16 February 17
IF I PLAN TO UNDERTAKE A CHARTERPARTY WITH AN UNFAMILIAR ENTITY, WHAT STEPS CAN I TAKE TO ENSURE THE CHARTERER WILL PAY THEIR HIRE? - SHIPOWNERS' CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Due to the difficult conditions currently existing in the shipping market, particularly in the offshore sector, Members a ...
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- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
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